The Lag

Goldman Sachs says AI contributed 'basically zero' to US GDP in 2025. The St. Louis Fed says AI-related investment accounted for 39% of GDP growth. Same economy. Same year. Same dollars. The disagreement is not about AI. It is about what counts. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius told the Atlantic Council this week that AI investment contributed 'basically zero' to U.S. economic growth in 2025. His exact words: 'We think there's been a lot of misreporting of the impact that AI investment had on GDP growth.' The same week, data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis showed that AI-related investment accounted for 39% of total GDP growth in the first nine months of 2025 — surpassing the dot-com era's peak contribution of 28% in 2000. Six hundred and fifty billion dollars in AI infrastructure spending. Two institutions staffed by serious economists. One says the impact is nearly nothing. The other says it is the primary engine of growth. Both are correct, which is the problem.