AI Will Replace Programmers. Are You Sure About That?

In case you missed it, back in January 2026, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei stated: "I think we might be 6 to 12 months away from when the model is doing most, maybe all of what SWEs do end-to-end." He then added: "I have engineers within Anthropic who say I don't write any code anymore. I just let the model write the code, I edit it..." It’s April now, and spoiler alert: we are still here, and we are still coding. Especially if you're a Senior Developer with 12 years at Google. But there's a catch: this is marketing on the level of "AI will replace everyone in 12 months" - a phrase we've been hearing for four years in a row now. Just a reminder that Anthropic's CEO said literally the exact same thing back in October 2025. So let's break down in maximum detail (maybe even too much detail) why neural networks, even the most advanced ones, are physically and mathematically incapable of replacing a programmer. And why Moore's Law, quantum tunneling, and t